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Specjaliści z Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) dowiedli, że wystarczy by 10% populacji posiadało niewzruszone przekonanie co do jakiejś idei, by rozpowszechniła się ona w całej grupie. Uczeni wykorzystali komputerowe modele analityczne do odnalezienia punktu, w którym opinia mniejszości zostaje przejęta przez większość.

Gdy liczba osób silnie w coś wierzących jest poniżej 10% dla danej populacji, nie widać wyraźnego postępu w rozprzestrzenianiu się danej idei. W takiej sytuacji idea ta może nigdy nie stać się opinią większości. Jednak wystarczy, by uwierzyło w nią 10% osób, by zaczęła się ona rozprzestrzeniać z szybkością błyskawicy – stwierdził profesor Bolesław Szymański, dyrektor Social Cognitive Networks Academic Research Center (SCNARC) na Rensselaer.

Przykładem tak szybkiego rozprzestrzeniania się idei są, zdaniem naukowca, wydarzenia w Egipcie i Tunezji. Dyktatorzy, którzy rządzili tam przez dziesięciolecia, zostali obaleni w ciągu kilku tygodni – mówi Szymański.

Bardzo ważnym odkryciem jest spostrzeżenie, że te graniczne 10% jest niezależne od sieci społecznej w grupie. Innymi słowy, niezależnie od tego jak i gdzie rodzi się dana idea oraz w jaki sposób się rozprzestrzenia, punktem granicznym jest zawsze wspomniane 10%.

Wniosek taki wyciągnięto na podstawie modeli komputerowych obrazujących różne typy sieci społecznych. W jednym z nich każda z osób miała łączność ze wszystkimi innymi, w innym były osoby, które miały więcej połączeń z innymi niż pozostali, działając jak liderzy idei. Po stworzeniu wielu różnych typów sieci, naukowcy „zarazili” niektórych przedstawicieli badanych wirtualnych społeczności ideami i sprawdzali, jak się one rozprzestrzeniają. Ci „zarażeni” byli całkowicie przekonani i nie zmieniali tego, w co wierzą. „Ludzie nie chcą wierzyć w coś, co jest niepopularne i zawsze próbują dojść do jakiegoś konsensusu ze swoim otoczeniem. Takie założenie przyjęliśmy więc w naszych modelach” – powiedział współautor badań Sameet Sreenivasan. W komputerowych modelach jednostki „rozmiawiały” ze sobą o swoich opiniach. Spotkanie kogoś, kto wierzył to samo, wzmacniało wiarę. Spotkanie osoby, która nie wierzyła, osłabiało ją. Jeśli wirtualne byty odpowiednio często spotykały kogoś o innej opinii, zmieniały własną opinię. Ludzie zaczynali kwestionować własną opinię, później ją zmieniali i sami zaczynali rozprzestrzeniać nowe idee. Jeśli osoby w coś wierzące miały wpływ tylko na sąsiadów, to w dużym systemie nie zachodziły żadne zmiany, bo odsetek przekonanych utrzymywał się poniżej 10% – dodaje Sreenivasan.

Takie badania pomogą w rozprzestrzenianiu opinii lub też w zapobieganiu rozprzestrzeniania się innych. Pomogą zrozumieć, w jaki sposób można np. przekonać mieszkańców miasteczka o konieczności ewakuacji w obliczu nadchodzącego zagrożenia czy też jak namówić ludzi do podjęcia działań mających na celu powstrzymanie epidemii jakiejś choroby.

Uczeni z RPI szukają teraz specjalistów, którzy pomogą im w sprawdzeniu wyników ich badań na dostępnych danych historycznych. Chcą też sprawdzić, jak idee rozprzestrzeniają się w mocno spolaryzowanych społeczeństwach, gdzie dominują dwie silne opinie.

Źródło: kopalniawiedzy.pl

Autor wpisu: ag

Komentarzy: 180 w artykule: ”10% wystarczy, by zarazić społeczeństwo nową ideą”

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